Big Day in the Big Ten

Big Ten fans have been waiting for this day all season long. It’s always been a heated rivalry, but now it’s for the ultimate position within the conference. That’s right. It’s almost time for …

Illinois at Northwestern.

OK, so the ultimate position this one will determine is last place, not first. And the only Big Ten fans waiting for this one are fans who grew up in Chicago and went to Illinois. And that’s only if we expand the definition of “waiting for” to mean “recognize somewhere in the backs of our minds that we actually could attend, but we won’t because it’s probably going to be chilly out, and besides, Michigan-Ohio State is on that day.”

Because that’s what we’re all really here to read about. Michigan-Ohio State, always a hate fest, is now essentially a semifinal game for the national championship. (Anyone who does want to see a preview of Illinois-Northwestern, click in the right rail on “Illinois vs. Northwestern: The Toilet Bowl”. The rest of you – OK, so that’s ALL of you – just keep reading.)

There are reasons to believe on both sides. Michigan has more quality wins: over Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Penn State; OSU didn’t play the Badgers and can only boast good wins over Texas and Penn State. On the other hand, OSU beat each of the common opponents in the Big Ten more handily than did Michigan, sometimes on the order of a couple touchdowns. On yet a third, hypothetical hand, the Big Ten this year is so horrendously crappy that if going undefeated against this conference merits a spot in the title game, the same reward should be just as automatic for Rutgers if the Scarlet Knights go undefeated in the only-marginally-more-crappy Big East, so that doesn’t really prove anything.

But now we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s stick to the game at hand.

It will pit strength against strength, as Ohio State’s offense and Michigan’s defense are the best units on each team. Ohio State, with Heisman Trophy front-runner Troy Smith at quarterback, is averaging nearly 36 points a game – and that’s including the inexplicable 17-point aberration against woeful Illinois.

Michigan has not given up a touchdown in three of its last four games, the trend broken only by a letdown against a competitive Ball State team. But the strength of its defense is against the run. And Troy Smith can pass. And he has, in both of his meetings with Michigan: 541 yards total, 300 of them last year in Ann Arbor, good for two wins.

Furthermore, with nine lost fumbles and four interceptions all year long, it’s unlikely Ohio State will cough up anywhere close to the five turnovers that Michigan rode to its biggest win, over Notre Dame. With Ohio State taking care of the ball, don’t bet on Michigan shutting the door to the end zone in this contest.

The game will be won, though, on the other side of the ball – not because Ohio State’s defense is necessarily better than Michigan’s, but because their defense is better than Michigan’s offense. While the Buckeye offense gets the spotlight, the defense leads the nation in fewest points allowed. OSU has given up more than 10 points only twice, and the Buckeyes gave up only seven to a Texas team that regularly scores 30 and broke the 50-point barrier four times this year.

Some of that credit must be given to an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over, so Michigan’s D appears to be more talented despite giving up more points. But it doesn’t matter which is more talented – what matters is whether OSU’s defense is talented enough to get the job done. They’re facing a Michigan offense that has sputtered at times this year, mostly while receiver Mario Manningham was injured, but this offense still isn’t potent enough to put up big numbers on a solid D.

Take Ohio State and lay the 7 points, and in a defensive struggle look for the under (40.5) to prevail. Final score: Ohio State 23, Michigan 13.

Am I biased? Of course I’m biased! After all, I did go to any Big Ten school besides Michigan. But my being biased doesn’t mean Ohio State won’t win. And to show the Michigan peeps that I’m not all about hating, I will go on record saying that “Ann Arbor is a Whore” is the dumbest slogan in the entire history of mockery. It didn’t make sense when those front-row girls at Wisconsin put it on their T-shirts, and it doesn’t make sense now.

I also had some thoughts about a potential rematch in the national title game. I rambled on so much about it that I made it a separate post. You can scroll down or click in the right rail on “Rematch? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Rematch!” I guess that more or less gave away how I feel about it.