Rematch? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Rematch!

There’s been a lot of talk for the last month or so – mainly from Michigan fans who sense that they’re going to lose on Saturday – that Ohio State and Michigan should meet again for the national collegiate football championship. I’m going to explore this controversy in two parts: whether it should happen, and whether it will happen.

Should: There is no way in the darkest recesses of hell that the loser of this game deserves to be in the national championship. The loser will have failed to win the Big Ten in a down year for the Big Ten. Are you telling me that Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Auburn would have more than one loss if they had played either Michigan’s or Ohio State’s schedule? Unlikely. Somebody could still come out of the SEC torture chamber with only one loss, and they would deserve to be in the discussion.

Besides, Florida-Arkansas as the likely SEC championship isn’t the only semifinal-caliber game left on the schedule. USC and Notre Dame, currently ranked No. 3 and 5 in the BCS, hook up on Nov. 25. What if Michigan beats OSU and Notre Dame beats USC? Then we have two teams in the country whose only loss is to No. 1 Michigan, and Notre Dame (vs. Georgia Tech, Penn State and USC) would have one more quality win than Ohio State. You can’t tell me a Michigan-OSU rematch is more appropriate than Michigan-Notre Dame. Even if Michigan and ND don’t both win, I would want to see whoever wins those two games square off more than I would want another OSU-Michigan game.

Finally, we have to talk about Rutgers. If they run the table, they’ll have quality wins over Louisville and West Virginia. That’s a little thin, but then again, in terms of common opponents, they beat Illinois a lot worse than Ohio State did and they might yet beat Cincinatti worse than OSU did. If Rutgers goes undefeated and does not have a higher BCS number than a team with one loss dragging down its score, it will be because the human pollsters ranked them lower than the computers did. And that will be because the human pollsters will be unable to admit the mistake they made by not ranking Rutgers in the beginning of the season. In essence, Rutgers would be denied a shot at the title because nobody thought they could earn one, even if they do.

To clarify, I do not think Rutgers is the second best team in the country, and I’ll be rooting big-time for West Virginia to clear up this whole part of the mess on Dec. 2. But if Rutgers wins out and doesn’t play for the national championship, they way it will happen will be yet another travesty in a very flawed BCS system.

Bottom line, though, has nothing to do with the other teams that might deserve a shot. College football is the most unforgiving of all the sports when it comes to deciding a champion. Basketball teams can lose 10-12 games and still get an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney; the NBA and NHL occasionally let teams sneak into the playoffs with sub-.500 records. Without commenting on which is right or wrong, college football doesn’t do things that way. I say win your conference or get no shot at the title, and if you don’t like it, you’re playing the wrong sport.

Will: Here’s where it gets interesting. I, like many people, think a rematch is a lot more likely if Michigan wins than if Ohio State does.

The problem – and I say this as a longtime journalist myself – is the arrogance of the sportswriters. Voters in the AP poll will not allow themselves to rank a team in the same position after a loss as they did before. Therefore, many voters will justify (in their own minds) swapping Michigan and OSU if the Wolverines win, because OSU drops at least one notch, but they will not be able to bring themselves to keep Michigan in the No. 2 spot if the Buckeyes win.

This is illogical and arguably unfair, as a No. 2 team by definition is not expected to beat a No. 1 team. But I’ve seen how these guys think, and it ain’t pretty. And Michigan and Ohio State both might be just strong enough in other areas of the BCS to come out 1 and 2 in the standings if the human polls put them there. (And just for the record, I have even less faith in the coaches' poll than the AP poll. I've just never been a football coach.)

It’s mostly a moot point, though. USC, Notre Dame, Florida and possibly even Arkansas all have high enough BCS rankings to put themselves in the No. 2 spot by winning out, regardless of where the pollsters put them. Even Rutgers could land in the No. 2 spot by winning out, but the Knights would almost certainly need help from the voters. At any rate, someone has to win every game that’s played, so the chances of one of those teams passing Michigan or Ohio State are pretty good. The most likely title game I see is Ohio State vs. Flordia, and you know, it’s hard for me to argue with that matchup.

On the other hand, the rematch could still happen regardless of what happens Saturday because the loser will have an advantage, and a very silly one at that, of not playing again. Many of the other contenders play into December, with tough games left on their schedule. Michigan might lose to OSU, drop all the way to No. 5 or 6, and then float back up to No. 2 without a win if everyone ahead of them loses. Again, this is because of the inanity of sportswriters voting according to who won or lost most recently instead of who they really think the best teams are. So if we do see a rematch, it will be yet another travesty of the BCS system, and not just because there shouldn’t be a rematch.