Illinois' Intriguing NCAA Draw

Illinois vs. Virginia Tech is a very interesting game in its own right for several reasons. And we’ll get to that in a moment. But what’s even more eye-catching is what waits down the road.

The winner of the Illinois-Va Tech game will likely get Southern Illinois, which will be a grudge match in any case. The Hokies would be looking for revenge against the Salukis, who beat them by 5 earlier this season. The Salukis would be looking for a little revenge and a lot of bragging rights against the Illini, who stole the very capable coach Bruce Weber from Southern and who get the lion’s share of the attention, money, and recruits in the state.

The NCAA loves to set up these kind of story-line matchups, particularly in the first and second rounds. But normally it seems that once the Sweet 16 is set, the tournament becomes all about basketball and not about drama.

Not quite so in the West region this year. On the chance – and a pretty realistic one – that Illinois beats little-brother school Southern, the top seed in the neighboring quadrant of the draw is every Illini fan’s favorite villain, Bill Self and his Kansas Jayhawks.

This pairing would have been fun in any of the last four years, but it might be at its sweetest this season. Because Kansas is unquestionably the more talented team by a large margin, Illinois has nothing to lose. If the Illini go down in flames, then Kansas merely won a game it was supposed to win. If Weber outcoaches Self to pull the upset, it would be the most glaring evidence yet that Self’s abrupt departure from Champaign after a scant three years did nothing but harm his career and benefit the Illinois program.

In fact, Jayhawk nation just might tell our boy Bill to “rock, chalk, go the fuck home” after what would be the latest in a string of disappointing tournament results.

But first we have to get past Virgina Tech. Yes, Virginia Tech …

Now seriously, these guys are a 5 seed? I guess it’s not just ESPN that sorely overrates the ACC. Virgina Tech has an RPI of 27, according to collegerpi.com. UNLV (10 RPI; 7 seed), Kentucky (11; 8), Arizona (13; 8), Villanova (18; 9), Marquette (24, 8) and several other non-ACC schools are all rated higher and seeded at least two spots lower. I understand that the seedings don’t and shouldn’t follow the RPI exactly, but Va Tech jumped over more than half a dozen schools.

Anyway, that’s not important. What is, is whether the Illini can beat them. As if it wasn’t enough that the NCAA selection committee actually gave us a neutral ACC-Big Ten challenge, without Dickie V’s thumb on the scale, this game is also an intriguing matchup strictly from a basketball standpoint.

The teams are evenly matched. They each beat Iowa by 4 on their home courts; Illinois also lost to Iowa in Iowa City. Illinois lost at home by to Maryland in a game that the was even closer than the 6-point victory margin indicated; Va Tech beat Maryland at home, but needed overtime to do it. Illinois beat an MVC team (Bradley), but barely; Virginia Tech lost to an MVC team (Southern Illinois), but it was a close game, and Tech was playing the far-better team.

Furthermore, Va Tech gets it done with guard play; while Illinois has a very tough guard in Chester Frazier, of late the inside game has really been establishing itself, so there will be contrasting styles in this game as well. I expect that Virginia Tech will be favored by 2 or 2.5 points, but I definitely think that if Illinois is hitting its outside shots, the Illini can win comfortably.

As for the rest of the Big Ten …

Ohio State: I see the Buckeyes very possibly heading for the Finals against Florida in a rematch of the BCS football championship. I still haven’t decided who I think will win.

Wisconsin: The Badgers shouldn’t have any trouble gliding into the Elite Eight, but they don’t have the firepower to hang with Florida.

Michigan State: Sparty should get past Marquette, but will bow out against North Carolina.

Indiana: Some experts are looking ahead to a Gonzaga-UCLA rematch, but I think the Hoosiers should dispatch of the Bulldogs in their down year fairly easily. Indiana will lose in the second round, though.

Purdue: It should be a high-scoring game against Arizona, but the Wildcats will hit a few more shots in the end.

Off-The-Cuff Final Four Picks

Ohio State, Florida, UCLA, Georgetown; the Buckeyes get back at the Gators for the football fiasco. (Didn't take me long to decide, did it?) Don’t hold me to these picks, though.