Packers 26, BEARS 7: Moving Right Along ...

Whew. That was a crazy New Year’s Eve party. I’m just now getting around to catching up on the final BEARS debacle … er, game.

And my feeling is, big whoop. So Rex Grossman had a non-existent passer rating. So the BEARS got embarassed at home again. I’m not worried. And here’s why …

HANDICAPPING THE NFC PLAYOFFS

We’ll go in inverse order of the favorites, according to the odds at Bodog.com, because that’s Michael Shackleford’s favorite gambling site. (And if you’ve never checked out Michael Shackleford’s wizardofodds.com site, well, you really should, before your very next gambling activity.)

New York Giants (+1400): Oh please. They squeaked by a weak opponent to struggle to an 8-8 record to slide into the playoffs as quietly as a guy at a party trying not to be noticed when the beer-run hat is going around. Half their team is hurt, and the other half is untalented (except for Tiki Barber). The BEARS’ 18-point win over the Giants at their place isn’t looking so impressive anymore. This time Philly defends their home turf. Record vs. playoff teams: 2-6.

Dallas Cowboys (+800): This team is intriguing, as one of several NFC teams to hit a hot streak and cool off without establishing itself as the clear second favorite behind the BEARS. Tony Romo might pull a surprise against the very mediocre Seahawks, and he could torch the BEARS’ depleted secondary on his best day. Then again, he could throw even more picks than … well, than Rex Grossman, and the BEARS will definitely win any NFC game in which they win the turnover battle. One way or another, I don’t see the Cowboys going deep. Record vs. playoff teams: 2-4.

Seattle Seahawks (+700): Last year they made the Super Bowl by winning every single game they played at home, which included both of their playoff games. They actually didn’t have an impressive road win anywhere in their 14-2 record. This year they’re mediocre in Seattle as well, losing two games to sub-.500 teams and three overall. Plus they already lost by 31 at Soldier Field, where they would play the BEARS if the two should meet. Record vs. playoff teams: 1-3.

Philadelphia Eagles (+400): OK, so the five-game winning streak was impressive. Now check out the records of those teams: 8-8, 5-11, 8-8, 9-7, 7-9. And the one winning team they beat (Dallas) did not look impressive down the stretch, when the Eagles caught them. The Jeff Garcia magic will run out at some point, most likely against the Saints in the divisional playoffs. Record vs. playoff teams: 3-3.

New Orleans Saints (+250): Now we’re talking. This is legitimately a good team. It’s not necessarily a Super Bowl-caliber team, although Drew Brees sure is a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback and Reggie Bush will be a Super Bowl-caliber running back one day. If the BEARS had to play this team in the SuperDome I’m certain the Saints would be favored. However, they won’t. This game will be in Soldier Field on Jan. 21, and although I'm starting to wonder if the earth's orbit is inching ever closer to the sun, I'm still pretty certain it will actually be winter by then. Drew Brees will be stymied by the wind. Reggie Bush will be stymied by the snow. The BEARS will run the ball 57 times and win 4-3 on two safeties. Record vs. playoff teams: 3-1.

Chicago BEARS (+125): First of all, notice the number. I’m not crazy in picking the BEARS to win the conference. The bettors have installed them as the favorite at a price twice as high as the Saints. Record vs. playoff teams: 3-1.

That said, the BEARS will win. They will win with Rex Grossman, who should get the start. And I’m not just saying that because I win the Griese pool if he starts every game in the playoffs. And I’m not just saying that because Pam the Wolverine wins the pool if Griese starts any of the games the BEARS have left. Grossman should start, but he should also be on a very short leash to avoid losing the turnover battle, which is the only way the BEARS would lose to any of the other five teams at Soldier Field.

The BEARS will win, if they’re smart, by running the ball more than 40 times a game, with Cedric Benson getting more than half the carries. They will win by the defense giving them good field position. But they will win. Remember, the BEARS have not lost two games in a row this year, and they’re the only team on this list that can say that. (Only San Diego can say that in the AFC.)

Final analysis: BEARS in the Super Bowl!

HANDICAPPING THE AFC

If you’re still reading, I applaud you, and will reward you with just a quick comment on each team and each's record vs. playoff teams afterward in parenthesis …

Kansas City Chiefs: Fattened up against NFC West; went 5-7 againt AFC. Quick exit. (1-2)

N.Y. Jets: Plucky little bunch, but give up a few two many big plays to last in this pool. (1-3)

New England Patriots: Might go deep, but have been vulnerable too many times this year. (2-2)

Indianapolis Colts: I do believe they’ll play better than they did in the regular season, but they still have too many questions on defense. (4-1)

Baltimore Ravens: Man, these guys scare me. This is a one-loss team since their bye week in October. (3-0)

San Diego Chargers: And these guys haven’t lost at all since the Ravens’ bye week. Still, something in my gut tells me the Ravens and the experienced Steve McNair both go back to the Super Bowl. (2-2)